Second Blog Post:The Eagle and the Dragon: Superpowers of the Future

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the United States has stood alone as the world’s pre-eminent superpower. The leader of several coalitions and a prominent member of several international institutions, the U.S. achieved hegemony over a significant portion of global politics. In the aftermath of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, however, many scholars have called into question how long American hegemony can last. There is a lack of internal or military issues normally prevalent in dying superpowers, which refutes the notion that America is somehow in decline. Instead, China’s rise to the role of global power represents a shift from the unipolar system America has enjoyed for the past 20 years.

Comparing China’s rise to the U.S. at this apparent ebb in power is a debate often voiced as the end of American dominance in the world. Pessimists frequently cite Chinese increases in military spending and accumulation of U.S. debt as the basis for a decline in American power. While the Chinese economy has enjoyed generous GDP growth for years, the sluggish U.S. economy has experienced a slow recovery since the Great Recession. Finally, as China continues to assert its dominance in the East China Sea to the detriment of its Asian neighbors, America is being seen as submissive to the dominance that is China.

It’s easy to paint a picture of Chinese hegemony when the only thing focused on is the successes China has experienced. While these gains cannot be discounted, it overlooks the growth made by the U.S., as well as the wide gap separating the two countries. While China is a sole contender for the title of second world power, there is a great difference in terms of strength and economic power between it and the United States. With a distinct lack of external threats or internal instability, it is unlikely the U.S. is in decline. However, with a rise in the regional power of the world’s second largest economy, the age of unipolar rule has come to an end.

The end of sole American dominance, however, does not mean the world is destined to plunge into a Second Cold War marked by economic devastation and constant military threat. John Ikenberry, writing on the future of the western world in response to China’s rise, remarks that China will be facing a Western system of diplomacy. With the M.A.D. theory of war firmly in place, thanks to the U.S. and China’s respective stockpiles of nuclear weapons, war between the two great powers is unlikely, even as tensions mount in Asia over territory. Furthermore, with such strong economic ties existing between the two, the thought of a situation even remotely similar to the Cold War developing is highly improbable. China’s rise to dominance signals the inclusion of more eastern nations in global politics, but it will be included into a Western world order.

I remember seeing a political cartoon once that summed up the reality of U.S.-China relations. Using Uncle Sam and a Chinese Dragon to represent the two countries, the cartoon shows their reactions to one another over the decades, going from outright disdain, to formal recognition, to partners. In the final scene, which portrays modern day relations, the two entities are seen as conjoined together at the hand, unable to separate.  This, I feel, correctly sums up relations between the two. While the U.S. and China have their differences, and will continue to far so long as they both exist as nations, the modern system of trade, diplomacy, and military force dictates that they remain as partners.

This is not to say that America and China will ever become true allies, or even harbor any particular good feelings toward the other. It does, however, highlight the fact that the days of angry propaganda movies, communication through red telephones, and resounding threats coupled with banging shoes are now at an end.  The East vs. West dynamic may remain, but this is not the same Cold War of the past. China and the U.S. are partners, and are inexorably linked to one another. Each side is only capable of bringing both of them down, or bringing them both into prosperity. In a situation like this, it becomes safe to conclude that the Eagle and the Dragon, for all their history and differences, will cooperate in global politics as equals, if only because they must.